Managing H1N1 for Protection of Workforce, Brand, Revenue and Reputation
Managing H1N1 for Protection of Workforce, Brand, Revenue and Reputation
How long will it last?
H1N1 is a novel infectious virus and people around the world have no immunity. Mexico was the first country with clusters of sick people and the disease peaked in that country in the last week of April but the virus is spreading to all countries in the world.
The World Health Organization (WHO) categorization of H1N1 is a Level 5 which is a human to human spread in two countries in a region and this will be raised to a Level 6 which is a global pandemic if the virus shows transmission between people in regions other than the North America’s.
Where countries are able to quarantine infectious persons the rate of rise and fall of cases will be much lower than in Mexico. If Mexico commenced at a very low level in March 2009 and peaked at the end of April 2009, the curve for the country is two months of rise of cases and two months of fall of cases.
In the United Kingdom, the curve may be far lower and shorter because of the use of anti-viral drugs to reduce the symptoms and cross-infections. A business case assumption could be for a rise in case throughout May and a fall in June but none of the experts will predict this as the future – a spokesperson for WHO stated that ‘what we say this week will be incorrect next week.
Illness and Death?
The WHO is concerned that a second phase will come in winter after a quiescent summer period. In the worst case scenario, this could reflect the severe Spanish Flu with global pandemic deaths but at present there is ‘no indication of a similarity. In 1918 an estimated 50 million died with half dying the first 25 weeks but the world population has grown to over 6.7 billion in 2009 so the death rates would be at an even more catastrophic level in a severe pandemic. On the 29th April, 2009, Dr Margaret Chan, Director-General of WHO stated “it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic”.
The Mexican figures of death and illness have been difficult to confirm and recent work by approved laboratories has shown that of 312 confirmed cases, 12 died and this translates into a 3.8% mortality in cases and an assumption may be that the deaths in this Mexican case study for the most part, represented persons who were not treated with anti-virals in the first 48 hours. The fact that 12 persons died in the most serious phase of the disease in Mexico City provides a useful baseline for assuming that in a population of 20 million persons, largely untreated with anti-virals there were so few deaths.
The US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) press reports on 3 May, 2009 were that there are good reasons for optimism as this phase of the disease appears no more serious than ordinary flu. A CDC confirmed laboratory study of 226 USA cases has identified: a median age of 17 years; very few persons over the age of 50 were represented; and 30 persons were hospitalized i.e. 13% of those ill were serious and required hospital treatment. The sole death was a child who had come up to the USA from Mexico. Person to person transfer of the disease was confirmed in the USA and has been confirmed elsewhere including the UK.
The transfer of the disease to pigs in Canada, reported on 3 May 2009, has shown the risk of sick humans transferring the novel virus into the pig gene pool. This is not a concern for eating cooked pork but is a concern for the risk of new, more adaptive and severe viral strains that may come from human contact with pigs.
Top Risks to Business: Workforce, Brand, Revenue and Reputation
Managing H1N1 in the Workplace while cases are increasing each day
1. There may be a workforce reduction while people stay away for 8 days when sick or household members are sick.
2. Businesses that plan early now with precautionary advice will reduce anxiety in workers and most importantly in workforce families.
3. Transport to work ‘protective advice’ will be important while H1N1 cases rise and are further spread across Britain and also if WHO moves to Level 6 pandemic categorization.
4. Staff retention may be very important to maintain productivity – i.e. some businesses may reconsider planned cut-backs driven by recession risks. Availability of staff will become a significant strategic factor in profitability if there is a second wave pandemic in the winter months.
Workplace Infrastructure
1. Ventilation is one of the key areas to reduce infection – open windows for increased air flow in buildings where this is possible.
2. Fresh air is the best protection from a virus – people who are fortunate enough to work in fresh air have a real advantage.
3. Six foot separation of workers- if some workers take holidays or can work from home then workspace separation may be better for desks or factory floor. A six foot protective bubble means avoidance of hand-shakes and other greeting customs.
4. Washing facilities may be made available as people go into work and leave work. Hand gel wipe facilities for visitors would protect workers, wherever this is a practical service.
5. Constant cleaning of all areas touched by people – lifts, door handles, table surfaces, computers, washrooms, and all areas where persons congregate or eat.
Outlook for UK Plc
1. British business has the advantage of close planning cooperation with government.
2. High resilience in a country keeps up confidence in the national economy – this has a significant value for UK Plc especially if a pandemic emerges now or in the oncoming winter of 2009.
3. British people do not panic and they cooperate with advice and help each other.
4. Local authorities will need a lot of help and guidance from central government as the pressure will be at the local level for community services. Company support by companies for local level activities will be important for company reputation and brand.
Keeping Life Normal in the Home/Work Protective Bubble
1. The British public will manage the pandemic risk very well because they are linked into a lot of advice and they do not panic.
2. The virus is moving fast between people but is not highly aggressive at this stage and it is unlikely that there will be deaths unless there are medical complications or persons do not obtain anti-viral treatment within 48 hours.
3. Therefore it is very important that workers who may be infectious or who have had a suspected contact, contact work by phone, instant messaging, ‘twitter, Skype or any other form of remote communication. A triage procedure by the employer can advise whether or not to stay away from the workplace – this is a simple triage by the workplace that will reduce infectious clusters.
4. By winter 2009, a second wave may be far more aggressive and disruptive.
5. Business, School and Home can plan a protective bubble:
Summary
Protection of workforce, brand, revenue and reputation are challenges for all companies because the H1N1 novel virus will move around the world. The risk may reduce within a couple of months but may emerge in winter. The current phase of the virus in May 2009 in the UK provides an opportunity for business to avoid workplace cluster infections and to demonstrate resilience and a capacity to operate in future under the most extreme conditions that a pandemic may cause around the world.
Managing life as normal within a protective bubble of activities will give confidence to workers to continue at work and it will protect revenue that is essential for households and for business operations over an uncertain time in 2009 and 2010.
From http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html Extract:
Phase 1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.
Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.
Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks.
Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.
Post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave. Previous pandemics have been characterized by waves of activity spread over months. Once the level of disease activity drops, a critical communications task will be to balance this information with the possibility of another wave. Pandemic waves can be separated by months and an immediate “at-ease” signal may be premature
Post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.
How long will it last?
H1N1 is a novel infectious virus and people around the world have no immunity. Mexico was the first country with clusters of sick people and the disease peaked in that country in the last week of April but the virus is spreading to all countries in the world.
The World Health Organization (WHO) categorization of H1N1 is a Level 5 which is a human to human spread in two countries in a region and this will be raised to a Level 6 which is a global pandemic if the virus shows transmission between people in regions other than the North America’s.
Where countries are able to quarantine infectious persons the rate of rise and fall of cases will be much lower than in Mexico. If Mexico commenced at a very low level in March 2009 and peaked at the end of April 2009, the curve for the country is two months of rise of cases and two months of fall of cases.
In the United Kingdom, the curve may be far lower and shorter because of the use of anti-viral drugs to reduce the symptoms and cross-infections. A business case assumption could be for a rise in case throughout May and a fall in June but none of the experts will predict this as the future – a spokesperson for WHO stated that ‘what we say this week will be incorrect next week.
Illness and Death?
The WHO is concerned that a second phase will come in winter after a quiescent summer period. In the worst case scenario, this could reflect the severe Spanish Flu with global pandemic deaths but at present there is ‘no indication of a similarity. In 1918 an estimated 50 million died with half dying the first 25 weeks but the world population has grown to over 6.7 billion in 2009 so the death rates would be at an even more catastrophic level in a severe pandemic. On the 29th April, 2009, Dr Margaret Chan, Director-General of WHO stated “it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic”.
The Mexican figures of death and illness have been difficult to confirm and recent work by approved laboratories has shown that of 312 confirmed cases, 12 died and this translates into a 3.8% mortality in cases and an assumption may be that the deaths in this Mexican case study for the most part, represented persons who were not treated with anti-virals in the first 48 hours. The fact that 12 persons died in the most serious phase of the disease in Mexico City provides a useful baseline for assuming that in a population of 20 million persons, largely untreated with anti-virals there were so few deaths.
The US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) press reports on 3 May, 2009 were that there are good reasons for optimism as this phase of the disease appears no more serious than ordinary flu. A CDC confirmed laboratory study of 226 USA cases has identified: a median age of 17 years; very few persons over the age of 50 were represented; and 30 persons were hospitalized i.e. 13% of those ill were serious and required hospital treatment. The sole death was a child who had come up to the USA from Mexico. Person to person transfer of the disease was confirmed in the USA and has been confirmed elsewhere including the UK.
The transfer of the disease to pigs in Canada, reported on 3 May 2009, has shown the risk of sick humans transferring the novel virus into the pig gene pool. This is not a concern for eating cooked pork but is a concern for the risk of new, more adaptive and severe viral strains that may come from human contact with pigs.
Top Risks to Business: Workforce, Brand, Revenue and Reputation
Managing H1N1 in the Workplace while cases are increasing each day
1. There may be a workforce reduction while people stay away for 8 days when sick or household members are sick.
2. Businesses that plan early now with precautionary advice will reduce anxiety in workers and most importantly in workforce families.
3. Transport to work ‘protective advice’ will be important while H1N1 cases rise and are further spread across Britain and also if WHO moves to Level 6 pandemic categorization.
4. Staff retention may be very important to maintain productivity – i.e. some businesses may reconsider planned cut-backs driven by recession risks. Availability of staff will become a significant strategic factor in profitability if there is a second wave pandemic in the winter months.
Workplace Infrastructure
1. Ventilation is one of the key areas to reduce infection – open windows for increased air flow in buildings where this is possible.
2. Fresh air is the best protection from a virus – people who are fortunate enough to work in fresh air have a real advantage.
3. Six foot separation of workers- if some workers take holidays or can work from home then workspace separation may be better for desks or factory floor. A six foot protective bubble means avoidance of hand-shakes and other greeting customs.
4. Washing facilities may be made available as people go into work and leave work. Hand gel wipe facilities for visitors would protect workers, wherever this is a practical service.
5. Constant cleaning of all areas touched by people – lifts, door handles, table surfaces, computers, washrooms, and all areas where persons congregate or eat.
Outlook for UK Plc
1. British business has the advantage of close planning cooperation with government.
2. High resilience in a country keeps up confidence in the national economy – this has a significant value for UK Plc especially if a pandemic emerges now or in the oncoming winter of 2009.
3. British people do not panic and they cooperate with advice and help each other.
4. Local authorities will need a lot of help and guidance from central government as the pressure will be at the local level for community services. Company support by companies for local level activities will be important for company reputation and brand.
Keeping Life Normal in the Home/Work Protective Bubble
1. The British public will manage the pandemic risk very well because they are linked into a lot of advice and they do not panic.
2. The virus is moving fast between people but is not highly aggressive at this stage and it is unlikely that there will be deaths unless there are medical complications or persons do not obtain anti-viral treatment within 48 hours.
3. Therefore it is very important that workers who may be infectious or who have had a suspected contact, contact work by phone, instant messaging, ‘twitter, Skype or any other form of remote communication. A triage procedure by the employer can advise whether or not to stay away from the workplace – this is a simple triage by the workplace that will reduce infectious clusters.
4. By winter 2009, a second wave may be far more aggressive and disruptive.
5. Business, School and Home can plan a protective bubble:
• Use a Plan every Day
• Create your own protective bubble in work and family space.
• In the household, if someone is ill, has been travelling in a plane or has had contact with a suspected H1N1 case, consider giving that person own protective bubble of six feet separation from others within the household – this may be necessary for up to 8 days.
• It is important for you to keep your job and help the community.
• Keep 6 feet (2 metres) distant from everyone when out of the house (do not shake hands or engage in greetings that breach your protective bubble).
• Do not have new people into the work team or visit your home – this reduces the protective bubble.
• Wash your hands many times and when going in and out of work or household buildings.
• Keep life very normal in your own protective bubble.
• In the UK, plan for a worst case scenario in May 2009 and possibly in June if the virus moves out of containment and spreads through many workplaces. There may be a possible quiet time until winter and in winter there is a chance of a much more serious disruption if the H1N1 turns into a severe pandemic. Remember that all countries are prepared for this.
• Keep in mind when travelling or accepting persons into the household or work teams that other countries will start to have infectious H1N1 virus earlier or later than the UK and will have peak risk times that are different to the UK.
Summary
Protection of workforce, brand, revenue and reputation are challenges for all companies because the H1N1 novel virus will move around the world. The risk may reduce within a couple of months but may emerge in winter. The current phase of the virus in May 2009 in the UK provides an opportunity for business to avoid workplace cluster infections and to demonstrate resilience and a capacity to operate in future under the most extreme conditions that a pandemic may cause around the world.
Managing life as normal within a protective bubble of activities will give confidence to workers to continue at work and it will protect revenue that is essential for households and for business operations over an uncertain time in 2009 and 2010.
From http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html Extract:
Phase 1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.
Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.
Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks.
Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.
Post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave. Previous pandemics have been characterized by waves of activity spread over months. Once the level of disease activity drops, a critical communications task will be to balance this information with the possibility of another wave. Pandemic waves can be separated by months and an immediate “at-ease” signal may be premature
Post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.